Capital budget
Preliminary budget by line item with minimum, most likely and maximum, P10–P90 range, contingency and quotes with their validity.
Preliminary estimate, not a contractual budget
Each value shows where it comes from: supplier quote, published price, historical estimate, index or own assumption. Only a firm, valid quote commits a price.
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Calculation version:industrial-budget@1.0.0.
How to use it
- 1Add each item with its minimum, most likely and maximum amount, and where the value comes from.
- 2For quotes, enter the supplier, the date and the validity; you can import them as CSV.
- 3Check the P10–P90 range, the items with the most uncertainty and what share is backed by valid quotes.
How it calculates
- Mean of each item (PERT) = (minimum + 4 × most likely + maximum) / 6; deviation = (maximum − minimum) / 6.
- Sum of independent items: total deviation = √Σ deviation²; P10 and P90 = mean ∓ 1.2816 × deviation (normal approximation).
- Contingency = % of the sum of the most likely values. A quote whose validity has expired no longer counts as quoted.
Verifiable example
With the fictitious example (seven items), the most likely total is €531,000, which rises to €584,100 with 10% contingency. The P10–P90 range goes from €514,603 to €567,397, and the sum of minimums and maximums from €435,000 to €687,000.
Limitations
- A preliminary budget isn't contractual: the final amount is set by firm offers.
- It assumes independent items; if they tend to move together (inflation, lead times), the real range is wider.
- It doesn't include taxes or financing.